Enter monthly averages for each quarter. Use the Copy Q1 → button on Q2–Q4 to pre-fill from Q1, then adjust as needed.
Enter three separate revenue and expense projections — Best Case, Base Case, and Worst Case — to see how each scenario plays out over the year.
🌟 Best Case
📋 Base Case
⚠️ Worst Case
For businesses spending more than they earn — startups, pre-revenue companies, or businesses in a growth phase. Find out how long your cash will last.
How to Use the Quarterly Cash Flow Projector
- Choose your mode. Use Quarterly Projector to map out a full year quarter by quarter. Use Scenario Planner to compare best, base, and worst case outcomes. Use Burn Rate & Runway if your business is spending more than it earns and you need to know how long your cash will last.
- Quarterly Projector: Enter a starting cash balance, then fill in monthly averages for each quarter’s income and expenses. Use the Copy Q1 button on Q2–Q4 tabs to pre-fill with your Q1 numbers, then adjust quarters where revenue or costs are expected to change. Click Project My Cash Flow to see a full-year breakdown with a running balance, health indicator, and quarterly table.
- Scenario Planner: Enter your current cash balance, then set three different annual revenue and expense projections — one optimistic, one realistic, one conservative. Choose a revenue distribution pattern (flat, seasonal, ramp) and the tool will apply it to all three scenarios and show you quarterly net flows side by side.
- Burn Rate & Runway: Enter your current cash and credit reserves, your current monthly revenue and expenses, and expected growth rates. The tool calculates your net monthly burn, projects month-by-month for up to 36 months, and tells you when your cash runs out and when (if ever) you reach breakeven.
How Cash Flow Projection Works
Cash Flow vs. Profit
Cash flow and profit are related but different. Profit is an accounting concept — it includes non-cash items like depreciation and accounts for revenue you’ve earned but haven’t yet collected. Cash flow is simpler: it’s the actual movement of money in and out of your bank account. A business can be profitable on paper and still run out of cash if customers pay slowly or if a large expense hits before revenue arrives. This is why projecting cash flow is one of the most important financial habits for any business owner.
The Quarterly Framework
Most small businesses think monthly but plan quarterly. Quarters align with tax filing deadlines (estimated taxes are due quarterly), business review cycles, and seasonal patterns. By projecting quarterly, you see the full shape of your year — which quarter is your cash crunch, which quarter is your buffer — in a way that monthly snapshots don’t reveal. The cumulative balance line in this tool is especially important: a profitable quarter can still leave you with a negative balance if you started with insufficient cash.
Scenario Planning for Small Business
The difference between a business that survives a rough quarter and one that doesn’t is rarely luck — it’s usually whether the owner planned for downside scenarios. Best/base/worst scenario modeling forces you to ask two questions before the year starts: what does a bad year look like, and do I have enough cash to survive it? If your worst-case scenario still leaves you with a positive year-end balance, you’re well-positioned. If even your base case goes negative, that’s an early signal to cut costs, build reserves, or pursue additional revenue before the gap arrives.
Burn Rate and Runway
Burn rate is the term used to describe how quickly a business is consuming its cash reserves. Net burn rate — the difference between monthly expenses and monthly revenue — is the most actionable figure. If your net burn is $5,000 per month and you have $60,000 in reserves, your runway is approximately 12 months. The goal of runway analysis is to answer a simple question: do I have enough time to reach profitability before I run out of money? The growth rate inputs in this tool let you model what happens if revenue is growing faster than expenses — the runway can extend dramatically even with moderate revenue growth.
Revenue Distribution Patterns
| Pattern | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Best For |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flat | 25% | 25% | 25% | 25% | Subscription, SaaS, steady service businesses |
| Q4 Peak (Seasonal) | 18% | 22% | 22% | 38% | Retail, e-commerce, gift / holiday-driven businesses |
| Q2 Peak (Seasonal) | 20% | 32% | 28% | 20% | Landscaping, outdoor services, travel, summer-driven |
| Ramp | 18% | 22% | 26% | 34% | New businesses, sales-driven, growing client base |
| Back-Loaded | 15% | 20% | 28% | 37% | B2B with long sales cycles, project-based businesses |
Frequently Asked Questions
What’s the difference between cash flow and profit?
Profit is your revenue minus expenses as reported on your income statement — it includes accounting adjustments like depreciation and may include revenue you’ve invoiced but not yet received. Cash flow is literal: money in minus money out of your account. You can have strong accounting profit and still run out of cash (if customers owe you money and haven’t paid). Cash flow projection focuses on what actually hits your bank account and when.
Should I use monthly averages or actual month-by-month figures in the Projector?
Monthly averages work well for most small businesses and are the fastest starting point. If your business has one or two quarters that are dramatically different (a major contract, a holiday spike, a slow January), enter different averages for those quarters rather than smoothing them out. The goal is a picture that’s realistic enough to surface actual cash crunches — not one that assumes every month is identical.
What is a healthy cash runway for a small business?
Most financial advisors recommend small businesses maintain three to six months of operating expenses in cash reserves. For early-stage or growth-phase businesses, twelve months of runway is a common target — enough time to course-correct if revenue comes in below projections. Under three months of runway is considered a danger zone where a single missed payment or slow month can create a crisis.
How do I factor in large one-time expenses like equipment or taxes?
For one-time expenses, enter them in the “Other Expenses” field for the quarter in which you expect them to hit. If a $12,000 equipment purchase is planned for Q2, add $4,000/month to Q2’s Other Expenses (since the tool uses monthly averages multiplied by 3 for the quarterly total). For estimated quarterly taxes, add your expected payment to the quarter it’s due — Q2 (April 15), Q3 (June 15), Q4 (September 15), and Q1 of next year (January 15).
My burn rate shows I’ll run out of cash in 8 months. What should I do?
Eight months is enough time to act — but not enough time to wait. Common responses include accelerating collections (invoice faster, offer early payment discounts), cutting discretionary expenses, pursuing a line of credit while your financials still look healthy (banks are easier to work with before a crisis), increasing prices, or adding a revenue stream. The runway calculator lets you experiment with different revenue growth rates — even modest growth can extend your runway significantly.
Can I use this for a side business or freelance income?
Absolutely. The Quarterly Projector works for any income and expense stream. For freelancers, revenue is your billable income and expenses are your business costs (software, home office, equipment, self-employment taxes). The Burn Rate mode is especially useful if you’re running a side business with startup costs before clients come in — it tells you how long your personal savings or initial investment will last.
💡 Tips for More Accurate Cash Flow Projections
- Look at last year’s actuals first. If you’ve been in business for a year or more, pull your bank statements or bookkeeping reports and use real quarterly figures as your starting point. Projections built on actuals are far more reliable than estimates built from scratch.
- Model your worst case honestly. The natural tendency is to be optimistic. Force yourself to build a worst-case scenario where revenue comes in 20–30% below expectations and a major unexpected expense hits. If that scenario still leaves you solvent, you’re in good shape.
- Don’t forget annual or semi-annual expenses. Insurance renewals, software annual fees, tax payments, and equipment maintenance often come in large quarterly lumps rather than smooth monthly amounts. Map them to the quarter they’ll actually hit.
- Update your projection monthly. A cash flow projection is a living document, not a once-a-year exercise. As actual figures come in, update your projections for remaining quarters — the gap between projection and reality is often the earliest signal that something needs to change.
- Build a three-month cash buffer before you need it. The best time to establish a line of credit or build cash reserves is when your business is healthy. Banks look at trailing revenue and profitability — applying when you’re in a cash crunch is much harder.
- Separate owner draws from operating expenses. If you pay yourself through owner draws rather than a salary, include that in your Payroll / Owner Pay field so your cash flow picture is accurate. Many self-employed owners undercount cash outflow by forgetting their own compensation.
- Track your projection vs. actual each quarter. Set a simple spreadsheet to record projected vs. actual for each quarter. Over time, your projections will become more accurate and you’ll identify which line items you consistently under- or overestimate.